Retail petrol: According to the Australian Institute of Petroleum, the national average Australian price of unleaded petrol fell by 0.8 cents per litre 116.9 cents per litre in the week to July 17 – a 2½-month low.

Today the national average wholesale (terminal gate) unleaded petrol price stands at 101.4 cents a litre, down 4.8 cent a litre over the week, also a 2½-month low.

Last week in Australian dollar terms the Singapore gasoline price rose by $1.33 a barrel or 2 per cent to $69.17 a barrel, however it had fallen by 9.6 per cent in the prior week – marking the biggest fall in more than five months.

MotorMouth records the following retail prices for capital cities today: Sydney 128.5c; Melbourne 104.6c; Brisbane 106.3c; Adelaide 112.5c; Perth 114.2c; Canberra 119.4c; Darwin 119.7c; Hobart 123.6c.

What does it all mean?

Petrol prices have fallen to 2½-month lows and there is even more good news to come. The fall in prices is only factoring in part of the weakness in global oil prices. The terminal gate price has fallen further over the past week and is now holding at the lowest levels in around ten weeks. In fact since the start of June the terminal gate price has fallen by around 12 cents a litre, while the petrol price has fallen by around 10 cents a litre – suggesting that even cheaper petrol prices are likely in coming week.

Importantly the fall in petrol prices will also be determined by the discounting cycle across capital cities. In Sydney prices fell for five weeks before spiking in the last couple of days. In Melbourne and Brisbane prices have been falling for a staggering 44 days and are holding $1.04-$1.06 a litre – at or below the wholesale price when shopper dockets are used. While in Adelaide prices have been falling for 11 days and are now holding a closer to $1.12 a litre.

 
What do the figures show?

According to the Australian Institute of Petroleum, the national average Australian price of unleaded petrol fell by 0.8 cents per litre 116.9 cents per litre in the week to July 17. The metropolitan petrol price fell by 0.7 cents to 114.6 cents per litre while the regional price fell by 1.1 cents to 121.5 cents per litre.

The national average Australian price of diesel petrol fell by 0.2 cents to 121.9 cents per litre in the week to July 17. The metropolitan price fell by 0.2 cents to 121.2 c/l, while the regional average price fell by 0.2 cents to 122.5 c/l.

Average unleaded petrol prices across states and territories over the past week were: Sydney (up 8.9 cents to 119.8 c/l), Melbourne (down 4.4 cents to 107.0 c/l), Brisbane (down 4.3 cents to 109.9 c/l), Adelaide (down 8.3 cents to 118.1 c/l), Perth (down 1.4 cents to 121.0 c/l), Darwin (down 0.6 cents to 120.4 c/l), Canberra (down 0.2 cents to 128.6 c/l) and Hobart (down 0.6 cents to 124.4 c/l).

Today the national average wholesale (terminal gate) unleaded petrol price stands at 101.4 cents a litre, down 4.8 cent a litre over the week and at 2½-month lows. The terminal gate diesel price stands today at 106.4 cents a litre, down 2 cents a litre.

Last week the key Singapore gasoline price rose by US$1.95 or 3.8 per cent to US$52.75 barrel. And in Australian dollar terms the Singapore gasoline price rose by $1.33 a barrel or 2 per cent to $69.17 a barrel or 43.50 cents a litre.

MotorMouth records the following retail prices for capital cities today: Sydney 128.5c; Melbourne 104.6c; Brisbane 106.3c; Adelaide 112.5c; Perth 114.2c; Canberra 119.4c; Darwin 119.7c; Hobart 123.6c.

What is the importance of the economic data?

Weekly figures on petrol prices are compiled by ORIMA Research on behalf of the Australian Institute of Petroleum (AIP). National average retail prices are calculated as the weighted average of each State/Territory’s metropolitan and non-metropolitan retail petrol prices, with the weights based on the number of registered petrol vehicles in each of these regions. AIP data for retail petrol prices is based on available market data supplied by MotorMouth.

What are the implications for interest rates and investors?

Petrol prices look set to drift lower over the medium term although capital city motorists must still contend with the vagaries of the discounting cycle.

The lower crude oil price is positive for consumers and businesses, lifting spending power. At the same time, the lower petrol price will keep downward pressure on the headline inflation rate. The average household is around $30 a month better off from the lower petrol price than in July last year.

Extracted in full from The Bull.

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