Electric buses are set to lead the EV revolution according to research organisation Bloomberg New Energy Finance.

Global sales of e-buses will rise to 84% compared to 28% of cars by 2030, according to the company’s latest long-term forecast.

The emergence of e-buses is backed by almost all charging configurations having a lower total cost of ownership than conventional buses by 2019.

There are already over 300,000 e-buses on the road in China.

Research also expects the electrification of road transport to move into top gear in the second half of the 2020s as battery costs fall and larger-scale manufacturing begins.

The forecast shows sales in EVs increasing from a record 1.1 million worldwide last year to 11 million in 2025, and then surging to 30 million in 2030 as they establish cost advantage over internal combustion engine cars.

China is set to lead the transition with sales accounting for almost 50% of the global EV market in 2025 and 39% in 2030.

The number of petrol and diesel vehicles sold per year is expected to start declining in the mid-2020s, as EVs bite hard into their market.

Around 60 million EVs are projected to be sold by 2040 which is around 55% of the global light vehicle market.

Bloomberg New Energy Finance lead analyst on advanced transportation Colin McKerracher says recent developments have led to more confident EV forecasts.

“Developments over the last 12 months, such as manufacturers’ plans for model roll-outs and new regulations on urban pollution, have bolstered our bullish view of the prospects for EVs.

“The changes to our forecast this time compared to the previous one a year ago are modest, at least as far as cars are concerned.

“We now think EVs will be 55% of light-duty vehicle sales in 2040, rather than 54%, and represent 33% of the total car fleet worldwide.

“But the big new feature of this forecast is electric buses. China has led this market in spectacular style, accounting for 99% of the world total last year.

“The rest of the world will follow, and by 2040 we expect 80% of the global municipal bus fleet to be electric,” McKerracher says.

Extracted from: Transport Talk

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