The surprise decision of Saudi Arabia and other Opec+ members to cut global oil production is expected to add 5c to Australia’s national average petrol prices in the coming weeks, analysts warn.

But the uptick won’t be enough to override the normal price cycles, which will see costs in some states fall over the Easter long weekend and in the lead up to Anzac Day.

NRMA spokesperson, Peter Khoury, said prices will remain relatively stable in the medium and long term.

“We haven’t seen the wild fluctuations that we saw last year. We’re not in petrol purgatory any more, so we’re not at the record highs that we saw last year, but we haven’t fallen to the levels yet that would deliver any meaningful relief to families.”

Dr Ian Jeffreys, principal economist and affordability specialist at RACQ, said the “increase in the oil price will add about 5c to the wholesale price of petrol and then in turn… most likely to flow through to our retail markets”, but the increase will be baked into the petrol price cycle.

“So instead of going down to between $1.75 and $1.80, they’ll be going to $1.80 and $1.85. The troughs don’t get as low because the wholesale price is higher, and then similarly, the price hike will be that little bit higher.”

Petrol prices are expected to remain high across Australia over the Easter long weekend and in the lead up to the Anzac Day public holiday.

The average price of petrol nationally has ticked up to $1.86 from a January low of $1.73, and is expected to reach $1.91 following the cut to production.

Sydney, which is currently at the high point of its petrol price cycle, should expect to see prices slowly decline by up to a cent a day until Anzac day.

Prices in Adelaide are also expected to fall slowly, but experts are advising motorists in Melbourne and Brisbane to fill up as soon as they can, with prices on the way up.

“Prices in Sydney should fall very slowly, and in most of the major capitals prices are declining – we shouldn’t be seeing any massive spikes over the long weekend,” Khoury said.

“Depending on what sort of impact the latest oil jumps have on wholesale prices, what we’re expecting is for those capital cities that are at the high point or starting to fall, they’ll continue to fall throughout the Easter period and beyond.

“So by the time we get to Anzac day, we should expect Sydney, at the very least, to be at the bottom of the price cycle.”

With prices in Sydney hovering between $1.90 and $2.10, Khoury recommended motorists keep their eyes out for bargains, particularly outside the city.

“At the bottom of the cycle, prices will roughly hit $1.78 on average,” he said.

In Melbourne, petrol has hit $1.90 and is going up, with prices expected to increase by 10c by the end of the Easter long weekend.

Brisbane is at the low point in its cycle, with petrol sitting at about $1.75-$1.80, and expected to rise to $2.10 in the coming weeks.

Extracted in full from: Surprise cut to global oil production expected to add 5c to Australia’s average petrol price | Transport | The Guardian