Key Insights

  • Ampol’s estimated fair value is AU$40.45 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
  • Current share price of AU$32.63 suggests Ampol is potentially trading close to its fair value
  • Analyst price target for ALD is AU$37.45 which is 7.4% below our fair value estimate

Does the November share price for Ampol Limited (ASX:ALD) reflect what it’s really worth? Today, we will estimate the stock’s intrinsic value by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. We will take advantage of the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model for this purpose. Before you think you won’t be able to understand it, just read on! It’s actually much less complex than you’d imagine.

We would caution that there are many ways o

f valuing a company and, like the DCF, each technique has advantages and disadvantages in certain scenarios. If you still have some burning questions about this type of valuation, take a look at the Simply Wall St analysis model.

View our latest analysis for Ampol

Is Ampol Fairly Valued?

We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second ‘steady growth’ period. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren’t available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

2024202520262027202820292030203120322033
Levered FCF (A$, Millions)AU$818.5mAU$785.2mAU$784.6mAU$746.2mAU$736.3mAU$734.1mAU$737.1mAU$743.8mAU$753.2mAU$764.6m
Growth Rate Estimate SourceAnalyst x4Analyst x4Analyst x2Analyst x2Est @ -1.32%Est @ -0.30%Est @ 0.41%Est @ 0.91%Est @ 1.26%Est @ 1.51%
Present Value (A$, Millions) Discounted @ 9.0%AU$751AU$661AU$605AU$528AU$478AU$437AU$403AU$373AU$346AU$322

(“Est” = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = AU$4.9b

We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.1%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today’s value at a cost of equity of 9.0%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2033 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = AU$765m× (1 + 2.1%) ÷ (9.0%– 2.1%) = AU$11b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= AU$11b÷ ( 1 + 9.0%)10= AU$4.7b

The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is AU$9.6b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of AU$32.6, the company appears about fair value at a 19% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula – garbage in, garbage out.

dcf
ASX:ALD Discounted Cash Flow November 8th 2023

The Assumptions

The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. You don’t have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company’s future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company’s potential performance. Given that we are looking at Ampol as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we’ve used 9.0%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.389. Beta is a measure of a stock’s volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for Ampol

Strength

  • Debt is well covered by cash flow.

Balance sheet summary for ALD.

Weakness

  • Earnings declined over the past year.
  • Interest payments on debt are not well covered.
  • Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Oil and Gas market.
Opportunity

  • Annual earnings are forecast to grow faster than the Australian market.
  • Current share price is below our estimate of fair value.
Threat

  • Dividends are not covered by earnings.
  • Annual revenue is expected to decline over the next 3 years.

See ALD’s dividend history.

Looking Ahead:

Whilst important, the DCF calculation is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. It’s not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Rather it should be seen as a guide to “what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?” For example, changes in the company’s cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. For Ampol, we’ve put together three relevant items you should further research:

  1. Risks: For example, we’ve discovered 3 warning signs for Ampol (1 is a bit unpleasant!) that you should be aware of before investing here.
  2. Future Earnings: How does ALD’s growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
  3. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the ASX every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

 

Extracted in full from:  https://simplywall.st/stocks/au/energy/asx-ald/ampol-shares/news/a-look-at-the-fair-value-of-ampol-limited-asxald

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