EVs overtake petrol for the first time as Australians’ top future choice

A spike in oil prices from Israel and the US’s war in Iran has fuelled record EV sales, and the shift is expected to be permanent, despite earlier concerns about battery health and range, according to new data from Carsales.

New study

The study revealed that 35 per cent of Australians say they will most likely be driving electric vehicles in the next decade, compared with 22 per cent for petrol and hybrid.

Meanwhile, the proportion of Australians considering buying an EV has surged from 36 to 54 per cent since November.

“For the very first time we’re seeing that now, if people are looking in 10 years’ time, what car will they drive? They’re significantly more likely to say an EV, as opposed to petrol or hybrid,” said Carsales research and insights lead Gage Milecki.

“It’s been a dramatic shift since November when we last ran this research.”

The trigger is at the bowser. More than one in three buyers, or 37 per cent, say the recent run-up in petrol prices has pushed them toward an electric car. The study was based on a survey or more than 1500 Australians last month.

EV concerns

For those still wary of EVs, the main hurdle is no longer the price tag. A shortage of public chargers, cited by 44 per cent, has overtaken cost, at 40 per cent, as the single biggest barrier to going electric. Carsales managing editor Feann Torr said Australia was selling EVs faster than it was building charging stations to support the rapid uptake.

Mr Torr said Australia has about 45 electric cars for every public charger, against 1.8 in South Korea, citing International Energy Agency figures. The Albanese government has committed $40m to new chargers, but he said more were needed.

“That’s a good start, but ultimately, where that money lands, that really matters. Will it go into regional routes where people actually drive? There’s a lot of people that live in suburban areas that have no off-street parking. It’s pretty much, if you don’t have the driveway, you’re going to really struggle to charge. You’re going to need a different kind of solution.”

“And we are seeing some of that happen in Sydney. They’re putting charges on telegraph poles and things like that. So, there are improvements happening. It’s definitely, definitely an issue right now for Australians.”

New EV challenge

But the surge in demand for EVs masks a narrowing market. While 52 per cent of would-be buyers say they would consider a used EV, 63 per cent rule out anything older than three years – collapsing ‘used’ demand into cars that are barely run in.

“When people are talking used EV, they’re really talking about new and near new, as opposed to used necessarily,” Mr Milecki said.

Driving the caution is a fear of depreciation. Nearly two-thirds of buyers believe an EV sheds 30 per cent of its value in three years, and 66 per cent say they would reject a new one if they knew it would.

“There’s quite a bit of a disconnect in terms of depreciation, and what actually people know about it,” Mr Milecki said.

The cheap end of the market shows the trade-off buyers are weighing. A BYD Dolphin now sells from $29,990 but returns about 200 kilometres of range; a $60,000 Tesla Model Y travels four to five times further. The battery alone accounts for about 60 per cent of an EV’s cost.

China’s market dominance

Regardless, Chinese marques now dominate the market. BYD now leads EV brand consideration at 37 per cent. Tesla has slid to fifth, at 18 per cent, according to the Carsales research.

“The best EVs you can get in the world come out of China,” Mr Torr said. “The Japanese have almost dropped the ball a little bit.”

Indeed, Toyota considered hybrid cars more practical than battery electric vehicles and a better way to decarbonise roads.

But BYD still carries baggage, particularly regarding concerns over data privacy and security. Australia’s domestic spy agency has warned MPs and public officials to mind what they say when riding in cars, especially internet-connected vehicles.

The move comes after seven Chinese electric vehicles were added to the list of taxpayer-funded cars available to federal politicians. But ASIO Deputy-Director General Lisa Alonso Love said those with valuable information should avoid revealing it while on the road

No going back

But Mr Torr said “a lot of people are happy to give up their privacy for convenience”. Still he said while ASIO’s advice was targeted at politicians, people needed to “read the fine print” and said data vehicles collected was valuable.

“They can track where you’re going, how fast you’re going. The data is worth more, if you like, and we do know that the data is often on sold to third parties, so you have to read the fine print a lot of the time.”

For those already converted, there is no going back. Nine in 10 EV owners say their next car will be electric too – a loyalty Carsales does not see in any other segment.

“If we look at things like insurance and things like that, people are very much open to switching, but what we find with people who own EVs is that 90 per cent of people said that they’re likely to buy an EV again in the future, whereas we just don’t see that with other types of products.”

Extracted in full from: https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/technology/evs-overtake-petrol-for-the-first-time-as-australians-top-future-choice/news-story/73f280589020f8556731dc4a98caa445